good-sport · the ledger
Claims we make, graded as evidence lands.
Learnings from building a sports model that grades its own picks. Entries that make a claim get a stamp — and we come back and grade it, the same way the model is graded. No highlight reel; the losses stay up.
live gates
Every family the model bets has a pre-committed keep/kill rule. These are the fuses, filling as bets grade — when one fires, it becomes an entry below. Numbers refresh with each night's grading.
- tennis tripwire 25 / 30 · −23.2pp all three tennis families go report-only at n=30 if still ≤ −10pp vs market
- batter hits bar 413 / 400 · +4.5pp PASSED 8/1 at n=413 (+4.1pp post-recal) — kept at full weight; same bar re-checked each audit
- batter strikeouts bar 134 / 200 · +5.2pp same 9/1 rule as hits — the winners face the same axe
- pitcher-K re-entry 70 / 100 · +4.0pp killed 7/18 — earns half stakes back at n=100 if ≥ +2pp, post-kill bets only
- 08·01 The first bet my rules refused to kill Report card №2 — batter hits passes the first keep gate, the killed family is beating the market from beyond the grave, and tennis is still five bets from its tripwire. REPORT
- 07·29 My model's worst bet died on schedule Report card №1 — the audit that fired nothing, the kill at exactly n=150, and the bug that ate two weeks of history. REPORT
- 07·28 The loss was never the data noteClaim: the money bleed is a probability-layer problem, not a missing-feature problem. Grades when the recalibration lands. OPEN ⏳
- 07·13 How a losing bet hides inside a winning average Claim: the blend hid a real batter edge and a real pitcher-K hole — and the pre-committed gate would decide, not the mood. It did, five days later. HELD UP ✓
- 07·03 The one number every sports tout hides Claim: closing-line value is the signal that matters, and where this model beats the close the edge is real. Re-grades at n≈500. OPEN ⏳
record so far: 1–0 held up · 2 open rss